Economic news from October 26 to November 2 increasingly suggests that Romania is heading into a difficult end of the year.
Electricity bills could rise by 10–22% under some contracts, while the situation at Cernavodă continues to create uncertainty in the energy market. The government's own calculations now also point to an economic contraction in 2026, while the state budget's financing needs remain substantial.
Several important changes are also taking shape for businesses: ANAF scrutiny of VAT refund claims could become stricter, while penalties for fiscal receipts without QR codes are expected to be postponed by one year. Hauliers continue to report technical problems with TollRo, and more than 210,000 applications have accumulated at the Trade Registry. At the same time, Harghita County exports have risen sharply, BYD is looking toward Romanian suppliers, and Romanian private capital is appearing in increasingly large corporate acquisitions.
1. Electricity bills could rise by as much as 22%: According to the energy minister, electricity bills could increase by 10–22%, depending on the supplier and the terms of each contract. New supplier offers published on the ANRE platform already show higher price levels. Household natural-gas bills, however, are expected to remain roughly at their 2025 level.
Tension in the electricity market is being compounded by the situation at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant. The energy alert has been extended for another 30 days, while wholesale electricity prices have remained high. The problem has already reached corporate contracts as well: Getica 95 Com, which has entered insolvency proceedings, proposed price increases to more than one hundred non-household customers after its earlier contracts became loss-making.
2. Even the government's own calculations now point to a 0.4% economic contraction in 2026: The year-end budget adjustment is already based on a 0.4% decline in economic output. This is a significant change from earlier in the year, when growth was still expected, even if only at a very modest rate. The slowdown therefore no longer appears only in the forecasts of outside analysts and international institutions.
The government has also approved the first budget adjustment. The deficit increases in nominal terms by about RON 3.5 billion, while the official target remains 6.2% of GDP. Additional funds are being directed, among other areas, to healthcare spending, pensions, social services and support for local budgets.
3. Companies claiming VAT refunds could be referred more easily for an advance ANAF inspection: ANAF would modify the risk criteria used to decide whether a VAT return showing an amount to be refunded is sent for an advance tax inspection. Under the system being considered, identifying just one of the specified risk factors could be enough for the tax authority to launch an inspection.
The change is particularly important because ANAF is using growing volumes of data from SAF-T and other electronic sources for automated risk analysis. According to an EY survey, 71% of participating companies have not yet carried out an internal preparedness exercise simulating a tax inspection triggered on the basis of SAF-T data.
4. Businesses could receive another one-year reprieve for QR-coded fiscal receipts: An important change has emerged in a rule we also covered in an earlier Weekly Focus. The government proposes suspending until October 31, 2027 the fines for businesses whose fiscal receipts do not yet contain the required identification data in QR-code form.
The postponement reflects the fact that the technical adaptation of cash registers and the related software has not yet been completed. Around one million cash registers nationwide need to be brought into line with the new requirements. If the amendment is adopted, businesses will have another year to prepare.
5. More than 210,000 applications have piled up at Romania's Trade Registry: Around 210,000 unresolved applications have accumulated at the National Trade Registry Office – ONRC. According to the institution's employees' union, the average processing time has already exceeded 30 days, even though the law provides for significantly shorter deadlines for many procedures.
The backlog is attributed to the sharp increase in workload, the introduction of new legislation and the additional work associated with updating CAEN activity codes. The situation directly affects the registration of new companies, amendments to articles of association, ownership changes and many other administrative procedures for businesses.
6. TollRo is still facing serious problems after one month: Hauliers operating vehicles above 3.5 tonnes continue to report multiple technical problems with TollRo, the distance-based road charging system launched in October. Complaints include login errors, difficulties topping up the electronic wallet, interrupted charging sessions and blocked accounts.
Hauliers are also reporting routing errors: in some cases the application directs vehicles into restricted areas, while in others roads that exist in reality are missing from the map. Administration can also become cumbersome for large fleets, and according to reports CNAIR has not yet been able to provide a final tally of the fines imposed during the initial period.
7. Harghita County exports rose by nearly 56%: Particularly positive data have emerged on Harghita County's foreign trade. According to the Harghita County Customs Office, the value of goods exported in the first six months of 2026 exceeded RON 117.2 million, compared with RON 75.2 million a year earlier. This represents growth of 55.7%.
A total of 1,947 customs operations were carried out in the first half of the year, including 1,020 related to exports and 927 to imports. Despite the strong export growth, the value of imported goods was still around 1.4 times the value of exports. During the same period, the customs office transferred approximately RON 19.4 million in revenue to the state budget.
8. Hungary won the BYD car plant, but Romania could gain a role as a supplier: BYD, one of the world's largest electric-vehicle manufacturers, considered several countries for the location of its European car plant but ultimately selected Hungary. According to Stella Li, BYD's European chief, the decision was influenced by already available infrastructure, previous local experience and the competitiveness of Hungary's offer.
Romania has not disappeared from BYD's map, however. The company is currently expanding its European supplier network and is considering the inclusion of Romanian businesses. BYD has qualified more than 250 European suppliers over the past two years, and company management says Romanian firms could be invited to upcoming supplier events. Additional BYD models are also planned for the Romanian market.
9. The state's Rompetrol shareholding is now worth about €2.6 billion: 2026 has brought an exceptional stock-market story for Rompetrol Rafinare. In return for historical debts owed by Petromidia to the state, Romania acquired a 44.7% stake in the company in 2010. Rompetrol Rafinare shares have risen by around 1,500% in 2026, lifting the value of the state's holding to about RON 14 billion, or approximately €2.6 billion.
The share-price increase has been supported, among other factors, by high refining margins and improved company results, although the stock's low free float can amplify price movements considerably. According to calculations by Ziarul Financiar, the state's current stake is now worth roughly five times the amount that was converted into shares at the time.
10. Romanian entrepreneurial groups are acquiring increasingly large foreign-owned businesses: 2026 has become a particularly active year in mergers and acquisitions, with one of the most interesting shifts being the growing number of major transactions in which Romanian privately owned companies are on the buyer side. Ziarul Financiar identified ten significant deals this year in which Romanian entrepreneurial groups acquired businesses generally held by international owners.
Among the best-known examples are the Pavăl brothers' acquisition of Carrefour România, the agreement by Autonom's owners to buy Business Lease România from the Dutch AutoBinck group, as well as other transactions in energy, technology and retail. The trend suggests that part of Romanian entrepreneurial capital is no longer relying only on the organic growth of its own businesses, but is also pursuing larger companies and assets that only a few years ago would primarily have been acquisition targets for foreign investors.
Summary
Perhaps the most important warning from the week of October 26 – November 2 came from the energy market: electricity bills could rise by as much as 22% under some contracts, while the situation at Cernavodă continues to create uncertainty. At the same time, the government's own calculations are now based on an economic contraction, ANAF is relying increasingly on electronic risk analysis, and a substantial backlog has developed at ONRC.
The picture is not entirely negative, however. Harghita County exports rose by almost 56%, BYD plans to involve Romanian suppliers, Rompetrol Rafinare's stock-market performance has produced an exceptional increase in the value of the state's holding, and Romanian buyers are appearing in a growing number of major acquisitions. This shows that, despite short-term economic difficulties, Romanian entrepreneurial capital and certain export-oriented sectors remain capable of strengthening.
As a number of major economic developments are continuing in parallel, readers interested in any particular subject are encouraged to search for the relevant terms online to access further analysis and additional details.
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