Economic news from October 19–26 shows both rising uncertainty and strong investment activity in Romania.
The National Bank of Romania expects inflation to accelerate again by the end of the year, while significant pressure remains on the leu exchange rate. ANAF is introducing a new IT system designed to identify vulnerable companies before they actually become insolvent, and a new mandatory electronic communication system is also being prepared for employers.
Meanwhile, housing prices have increased by more than 10%, the construction sector continues to expand strongly, and a €100 million preferential financing programme is opening to the smallest businesses. In Székelyföld, the start of the Miercurea Nirajului–Sărățeni section of the A8 motorway is being delayed by administrative and design-related issues, while a new business incubator in Bălan is being prepared to host around 15 start-ups.
1. The National Bank expects inflation to rise further while the leu remains under significant pressure: The National Bank of Romania expects the economy to recover to some extent in the second half of 2026, but at a more modest pace than previously anticipated. Inflation, however, could return to an upward path by the end of the year and may exceed the 6.1% level forecast by the central bank in August for December 2026.
Exchange-rate risk has also remained high. The euro traded around historical highs of approximately RON 5.35 in October, while the share of Romanian government bonds held by foreign investors fell below 17% during the summer. Large budget and current-account deficits, political uncertainty and international risk aversion may continue to put pressure on the leu.
2. ANAF wants to identify companies in difficulty before they become insolvent: From October 26, tax authority managers can use a new IT application that uses data available to ANAF to flag companies with a high pre-insolvency risk – in other words, businesses showing signs of approaching insolvency.
If a company owing money to the state is classified as high-risk, the responsible officials must initiate an inspection. Where justified, ANAF may also impose precautionary measures on the company’s assets to protect the state’s ability to recover its claims later. The system is part of a broader digitalisation process in which ANAF is linking information from more than 250 databases for risk analysis.
3. All employers will have to register in the Labour Inspectorate’s new SPV system: A new electronic communication system is being prepared for employers. The Labour Inspectorate will introduce its own Spațiu Privat Virtual – SPV – which is expected to become the single official communication channel between businesses and the territorial labour inspectorates.
The SPV will be used to send inspection reports, notices and deadlines, while companies will also be able to submit documents and replies requested during labour inspections through the same system. Registration will become mandatory, although the exact deadline will be set by legislation that is still being prepared, so no immediate action is required for now.
4. Housing prices in Romania have risen by more than 10%: According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, residential property prices in the second quarter of 2026 were overall 10.45% higher than the 2025 annual average. The increase was even stronger for new homes, at 10.89%.
Apartment prices increased by an average of 10.68%, while house prices rose by 8.52%. The calculations are based on actual sale and purchase contracts supplied by notaries, meaning that they do not simply reflect asking prices in property advertisements.
5. Construction is growing strongly despite the economic slowdown: In the first eight months of 2026, the volume of construction work in Romania increased by 15.4% compared with the same period a year earlier. New construction grew by 18.7%.
Residential construction was particularly strong, with the volume of work on residential buildings increasing by 22.9%. August was an exceptional month, when construction output rose by more than 40% year on year. The figures show that construction remains, for the time being, one of the strongest sectors of the Romanian economy.
6. The start of the A8 Miercurea Nirajului–Sărățeni section is being delayed: The contract for the 23.4-kilometre Miercurea Nirajului–Sărățeni section is worth nearly RON 2.98 billion excluding VAT, with financing provided through the 2021–2027 Transport Programme.
According to a statement made in Parliament, the contractor has been waiting for the building permit for months despite having prepared three concrete batching plants, around 200 trucks and 800 workers. Earlier information from CNIR also indicated that additional investigations were required during the design stage. The section is particularly important for Székelyföld because the A8 is intended in the longer term to connect the Târgu Mureș area with Moldavia and eastern Romania.
7. A €100 million preferential financing programme is opening to Romanian microbusinesses: The European Investment Bank is providing BCR Social Finance with a €50 million loan, and the financial institution will add the same amount from its own resources. This will make a total of €100 million in more favourable financing available to Romania’s smallest businesses.
The programme targets companies with fewer than ten employees and annual turnover or total assets of no more than €2 million. EIB participation may allow interest rates to be more favourable than ordinary commercial financing. A related InvestEU guarantee aims to support more than 5,300 microbusinesses, with particular attention to rural areas.
8. A major US technology company is buying a factory in Romania: US-based TTM Technologies has agreed to acquire the Ophir Optics business from MKS. The division manufactures high-precision infrared thermal-imaging and laser-optics technologies for defence, security and industrial applications.
The total value of the transaction is approximately $650 million and, in addition to operations in Israel, includes the manufacturing plant in Bucharest, which employs more than 180 people. TTM Technologies is also an important supplier to the US defence industry, making the transaction noteworthy for the development of Romania’s higher-value technology and defence sectors.
9. Space is being prepared in Bălan for around 15 start-up businesses: The Bălan business incubator project has entered a new phase. Harghita County Council has launched an open procurement procedure for the machinery and equipment needed to operate the centre. The project is being implemented in partnership with Bălan Municipality with European funding.
The incubator will be able to host around 15 newly established businesses and will also provide training and business-development programmes. The current procurement includes equipment for woodworking, textile, photography and leathercraft workshops. The investment could be particularly important for Bălan, where creating new jobs and alternative economic activities has been a long-standing challenge since mining activity ended.
10. New tax-advantaged savings and investment accounts have been introduced in Romania: Law 202/2026 entered into force in October, creating the CEI – Conturi de Economii și Investiții, or Savings and Investment Accounts – system. The scheme is designed to encourage long-term saving and investment through dedicated tax rules.
There will be two main types of account: CEI-S, which provides an exemption regime, and CEI-D, which provides tax deductibility. Employers may contribute to an employee’s CEI-D account where the benefit is provided for in the employment contract or internal regulations, while employees’ own contributions may reduce the taxable base of salary income under the conditions set out by law. The system still requires further implementation and supervisory steps before becoming fully operational.
Summary
The week of October 19–26 clearly illustrates the contradictory nature of the Romanian economy. The National Bank is warning of rising inflation and exchange-rate risks, while ANAF is using increasingly sophisticated databases to identify companies with tax debts before they actually become insolvent. Housing prices are rising at a double-digit rate, while financing conditions for households and businesses remain difficult.
At the same time, construction is recording double-digit growth, a new financing opportunity is opening to microbusinesses, and foreign investment with a high technological component continues to arrive. Two local developments are particularly important for Székelyföld: preparations for the A8 motorway section around Miercurea Nirajului and the Bălan business incubator, which could create concrete opportunities for new businesses and jobs.
As a number of major economic developments are continuing in parallel, readers interested in any particular subject are encouraged to search for the relevant terms online to access further analysis and additional details.
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